Ukraine Attacks Part of Russia's Nuclear Triad. Russia May Strike Nuclear Blow in Response

On Sunday, June 1, Ukraine attacked several Russian regions targeting military airfields with strategic aircraft deployed on them. Targets were hit in Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions (Northern, Central and Far Eastern regions).

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Ту-22М3

According to Kyiv, the attacks were carried out to annihilate carriers of cruise missiles located at those airbases.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense stated that no one was killed, but several aircraft were damaged. Ukrainian officials said, however that the attacks led to the destruction of as much as 34 percent of Russia's strategic fleet.

FPV Drones Used in the Attack

The strikes were carried out using FPV drones launched from trucks parked in close proximity to the airfields. Each truck reportedly carried about 50 drones. According to Alexey Rogozin, head of the Center for the Development of Transport Technologies NGO, the quadcopters used were of an unconventional design. The drones were operated via the popular open-source software Mission Planner in AltHold mode. In this mode, altitude is maintained using a barometer and accelerometer, with no reliance on GPS.

"This indirectly suggests that electronic warfare systems (EW) might have been active at the airfields — GPS signals were being jammed, yet the drones still flew. Traditional defense systems are becoming obsolete," Rogozin said.

The expert also suggested the operators likely used digital communications via SIM cards, allowing for high-quality video transmission.

Possible Target: Cruise Missile Carriers

According to Voennoe Obozrenie (Military Review), in the past two weeks, the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) had significantly relocated strategic aviation assets. For example, Tu-22M3 long-range bombers and Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers may have been transferred to the Olenya airbase in the Murmansk region.

These aircraft — the Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS — are capable of carrying cruise missiles. The Tu-22M3 supersonic bombers can be armed with up to three Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, each equipped with a high-explosive shaped-charge warhead weighing 960 kg.

Tu-95MS strategic bombers can launch Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles. The upgraded Tu-95MSM variant carries eight Kh-101s on external pylons. These missiles have a maximum range of about 5,500 km and a fragmentation-explosive warhead weighing around 450 kg. During the special military operation, some Kh-101s were equipped with dual warheads — both fragmentation-explosive and cluster munitions — designed to strike area targets like airfields.

Open-Air Aircraft Deployment Due to START Treaty

Political consultant Igor Dmitriev told Tsargrad that the aircraft had been stationed in the open due to the START III treaty signed with the US. The agreement required strategic bombers to be visible and countable via satellite monitoring — stationed at designated bases and marked for identification. He emphasized, however, that Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023.

Tu-95MS: Pillar of Russia's Nuclear Triad

The Tu-95MS strategic bombers, along with the Tu-160, are part of Russia’s aerial component of its nuclear triad. The triad also includes land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) such as the Yars, and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) from the Borei and Borei-A classes, armed with Bulava ICBMs.

Strategic aviation is tasked with striking the enemy’s vital infrastructure to cripple their industrial and military capacity. Bomber-based missile carriers are considered the most flexible part of the triad, as they can be retargeted mid-flight.

As of 2017, Russia’s strategic aviation fleet included:

• 60 Tu-95MS bombers,
• 16 Tu-160s.

Production of the Tu-95 ended in the early 1990s, while Tu-160 production was resumed. In 2022, the first newly-built Tu-160M2 made its maiden flight.

Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 Used in Ukraine Conflict

Both Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers have been actively used during the special military operation. They launch cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine from Russian airspace, mainly striking industrial sites and air bases.

Their crews also regularly fly over the neutral waters of the North Atlantic, the Black and Baltic Seas, and the Pacific Ocean.

Attacks on Tu-95s Could Justify Nuclear Retaliation

The Tu-95MSM can carry up to eight Kh-102 cruise missiles, each with a 250-kiloton thermonuclear warhead.

Therefore, attacks on these aircraft could undermine the effectiveness of Russia’s nuclear forces. According to the "Basic Principles of the State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence," such actions fall under conditions that may justify the use of nuclear weapons.

The conditions determining the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation are: (…)

"...enemy impact on critically important state or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the incapacitation of which will lead to the disruption of the response actions of nuclear forces," Decree of the President of Russia on the approval of the Fundamentals of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence reads.