The Canadian province of Alberta will create a commission to discuss its future within Canada and hold a corresponding referendum. How far will this go?
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced on April 5 during a live public broadcast that a referendum on the province's separation from Canada will be held next year, if a petition on the "Alberta is Next" online forum gains sufficient support.
Smith spoke a week after the Liberal Party secured a fourth consecutive victory in federal elections. Rallies were held and petitions signed advocating for separation from Canada or even potential annexation by the United States.
Alberta, with a population of about 5 million, is known for its vast oil and natural gas reserves. In 2023, the province accounted for 84% of Canada's total crude oil production and 61% of its natural gas output. In 2024, Alberta ranked second only to Ontario in GDP growth contribution. Its GDP per capita is the highest among Canadian provinces.
"The world looks at us like we've lost our minds,” Smith said. "But we have the most abundant and accessible natural resources of any place on Earth, and yet we sell what we produce to only one customer to our south (the U.S.)."
Smith published an updated list of demands for the federal government, which the minority administration of Mark Carney must meet to "show respect to the people of Alberta”:
These restrictions from a "hostile federal government" prevent Alberta's economy from thriving, Smith said.
Other demands include:
A survey by the Angus Reid Institute shows that if a referendum were held tomorrow, one in four Alberta residents would vote to leave Canada. The desire for independence intensified in 2019 after the cancellation of the Energy East pipeline project to the east coast, which would have allowed Alberta to export oil to countries other than the U.S.
Referendums on separation were previously held in Quebec in 1980 and 1995, but both times the majority voted to remain in Canada.
Vladimir Vasiliev, a senior fellow at the Institute for the U.S. and Canada, believes that disintegration processes in Canada have intensified following former President Donald Trump's statement that he wants to see Canada as the 51st U.S. state. Vasiliev did not rule out the possibility of deliberate efforts by the Trump administration to break up Canada, as the entire country is unlikely to join the U.S., but individual provinces potentially could.
"The mechanism for Canada as a whole to join the U.S. is excluded for many reasons. So it's possible that many developments within Canada today are linked to internal disintegration processes,” Vasiliev told Pravda.Ru.
Canada's constitution does not allow unilateral secession. The law stipulates that the House of Commons must determine whether a provincial independence referendum represents a "clear expression of the will of a clear majority.” If so, the provincial government may negotiate constitutional amendments with the federal government to potentially allow for self-determination.